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May 21, 2012, 04:33:12 PM
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Author Topic: scientific evaluation on observation and inference  (Read 2273 times)
paul cannon
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« on: January 22, 2009, 03:37:37 PM »

it is my opinion that being a design and manufacturing comunity, to grow and develop as such, we must evaluate previous methods and our own current methods. To do this, images and ideas are put forth for analysis by members. A person may post an image of a board or glass job he/she has done, and may be seeking recognition for achievement and/or honest evaluation, to improve his techniques. This evalution is best done with some sort of fair and scientific procedure
here  is a definition of scientific method . please read it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

so we post a picture or concept . we scientifically evaluate its pluses and its minus and we make infererence before and observation after experiments.
There is a distinct difference between observation and inference. however Inference is a valid scientific process, yet at the same time due to the fact it is a similar thought process, belief systems can overide logic, and inference can be easily confused with FACT

Quote
   
Inference

It is important to distinguish between observations and inferences. The colors and color changes, the temperature and temperature changes, the smells that you may come across in this lesson and throughout this course are directly observed and they can be classified as observations. When you do something with that observation, like draw a conclusion or offer an explanation or decide that a chemical reaction occurred, then you are making an inference. The inference may or may not be a correct one. Correctness is not what makes the difference between observation and inference.

An observation is the awareness of some condition; inference is the result of a mental process which attempts to explain or catalog or speculate about that observation. So far we have had several examples of observations (and measurements as well), but we have not really talked about inferences. A few examples might help to illustrate the point.

Cloud [1infclo.jpg (25377 bytes)] In this picture, you can observe that there is some white material up in the air. One of the inferences that you might make is that you are looking at the picture of a cloud. Another inference you might make is that there was a brush fire in the direction that the the picture was taken, or perhaps Mt. St. Helens has erupted again after all these years. Whether or not any of those statements is true is beside the point at the moment. Saying that it is a picture of a cloud is an inference. Observing the white stuff behind the trees and building is the observation.

There are times when observations and inferences are very much intertwined with one another and then it can be very difficult to make the distinction. This is because observation and inference both are mental processes. An example of this is a mirage or an optical illusion.

Mirage [1infmir.JPG (7860 bytes)] If you have ever seen the light shimmering off the road or countryside out in the desert, it looks like water. That is an inference. What you are observing is the reflection of the light, and you are inferring that it is reflecting off water.

Optical illusion with tabletops [1inftab.JPG (4628 bytes)]Here is another possible example of an optical illusion. In this diagram of two tabletops submitted to the April 1998 issue of "The Physics Teacher" by Martin Gardner, you have probably inferred that the tabletop on the left is longer than the tabletop on the right. If you were to make a copy of this diagram from the original article and superimpose the two you would find that they are the same size and shape. (The display on the screen and on your printer may be slightly distorted.) Your inference seems to be an observation, but it is not. However, your mind is making the inference at such a basic level that it appears to be an observation.

Yelow and blue overlapping lines [inf-ybg.gif (1852 bytes)]In the diagrams shown here the closely spaced blue and yellow lines take on a different appearance where they overlap. Indeed, the white portions of the screen background that you are looking at is not really white, but rather closely spaced blue, green and red dots that your brain has blended together and interpreted as white.

So, observations and inferences are sometimes a bit hard to distinguish from one another. But for the most part, if you are careful about making the distinction, at least in this course, you won't have too much trouble figuring out what is an observation and what is an inference. Making inferences involves knowing how to look beyond what you actually observe, and to know that you are doing it. Remember that the point here is not that observations are correct and inferences are incorrect, but rather that there is a difference and that you need to know what that difference is.
view post in entirety
http://dl.clackamas.edu/ch104-02/inference.htm

ok so hopefully this clears up some things.
 A good example of a good thread would be if we posted up images of 6 or 7 major fin systems, made analysis and inference of the pluses and minus points. Then install them and make observations over lengthy testing of their plus and minus points. Then at this we may come to come factual analysis of these products. Many companys USE forums to promote their products and in doing so in this environement they are in effect, subjecting these products for consumer evaluation.  Whether it be a famous designer or a green newbie, all materials available for analysis should be treated equally and fairly with the same scientific process.
 We have disccused the nature of the 2 edged sword of forum advertizing and promotion. We are all aware of the politics and controversy thats surounds this subtle form of spamming. However as reasonable and balanced humans and with guidlines previously outlayed, we must try and put our personal feelings and alliances aside. We should judge a design  or object as it stands on its own merits (through scientific process) and not from any emotional standpoint or personal belief system. ( leave belief to religous forums).
 If someone posts designs and images on the interent that are not subject to copyright, then it is perfectly fair for us a comunity to make both inference and observation of these without hinderence of personal belief structures, and political alliances. It is also well within the right of individuals to personaly request their IP, images and designs to be removed from this process. This must be done in a simple and profesional process of an email or personal message to site administrators, not in slaging match on the forum. Also please try not act on behalf of the owners of these designs, It is up to them to either join the forum and respond scientifically through their own observations, or simply contact me or doug for removal.

these are some concepts and guidelines which doug and i believe are in fairness and the best interests for growth of the comunity as whole.

Quote
Analysis (from Greek ἀνάλυσις, "a breaking up") is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aristotle, though analysis as a formal concept is a relatively recent development.

As a formal concept, the method has variously been ascribed by Ibn al-Haytham,[1] Descartes (Discourse on the Method), Galileo, and Isaac Newton, as a practical method of physical discovery.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2009, 04:05:10 PM by paul cannon » Logged
RoyStewart
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2009, 04:05:13 PM »


  Thanks for the sensible  guideline Paul  ( and hooray for a pure 'boffin' topic)

 
  As mentioned in the quote inference and observation are separated conceptually as a matter  of convenience, but in reality are always intimately related. In other words it is often assumed that it is possible to make a pure observation without inference, but that isn't the case. . .. .  observation always includes inference, it isn't possible to make an observation otherwise. Without inference all 'observations' would just become  meaningless shapes and colours. 

 .

 
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paul cannon
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2009, 04:20:56 PM »

sorry i edited the post a bit i was using incorect words that were a bit confusing
Quote
observation always includes inference, it isn't possible to make an observation otherwise.
inference is based on belief from a collection of experience of previous observations and agreed apon FACTS
belief requires faith?Huh

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paul cannon
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2009, 04:28:28 PM »

this is gread 8, school science
i think most young surfers were wagging school by then and i guess why surfboards are always evaluated with inference firmly influenced by some sort of qausi religous dogma.
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RoyStewart
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2009, 04:38:12 PM »

 
 Now you have started something  Grin

 Ultimately the only 'fact' which doesn't require some element of faith or belief is the knowledge of one's own consciousness.

 This is what Descartes realised... . .  basically everything except the existence of one's own conscious experience can be interpreted in  an infinite number of ways ( including the classic example that the content of our experiences could be the result of one being a brain in a vat tortured by an evil genius ) so accepting one interpretation of experience requires an act of faith.

 Basically every interpretation of experience is subject to doubt or scepticism

 The only exception to this is one's conscious experience, as it cannot be doubted that it exists.


 
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RoyStewart
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« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2009, 04:45:13 PM »


this is gread 8, school science
i think most young surfers were wagging school by then and i guess why surfboards are always evaluated with inference firmly influenced by some sort of qausi religous dogma.


Hmmm we didn't get that stuff at school, everything was presented as established fact.

It's the same at University level in the sciences, most science students just regurgitate formulae, and tend to spin out when they accidentally take the philosophy of science ( basically analysis of scientific method ) . . . .  " What is this stuff man ?  it's too hard everyone said it was an easy option  just give us the answer so we can learn it for the exam "

True about the religious dogma. . . the term 'performance' is a classic example. . . ..  whenever I hear the term I always think of the Fat Lady Singing . . . . .  most groms think it's a butt crack covered with billabong baggies, parked on top of a wave, with some spray

 .

 



 

 
« Last Edit: January 22, 2009, 04:48:52 PM by RoyStewart » Logged
paul cannon
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« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2009, 04:54:50 PM »

so beyond our own self awareness of our conciousness (fact). everything else is tied up in belief and faith. The acknowlegement of existence of god or omnipotent beings are as conceptually valid as DNA
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paul cannon
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« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2009, 04:59:41 PM »

all my good teachers didnt last long at school Cry

wrt
"True about the religious dogma. . . the term 'performance' is a classic example. . . ..  whenever I hear the term I always think of the Fat Lady Singing . . . . .  most groms think it's a butt crack covered with billabong baggies, parked on top of a wave, with some spray"

when i see performance im think sexual prowess LOL
i think thats how most surfers see and link gyrations on a wave to gyrations in the sack
sort of like a mating ritual ,but in winter NZ no ones watching except a few sheep ( and even they are not particularly interested)
« Last Edit: January 22, 2009, 05:01:42 PM by paul cannon » Logged
RoyStewart
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« Reply #8 on: January 22, 2009, 05:09:09 PM »


 Well the conversation wil no doubt take a dive now that sheep got mentioned.

 Yes basically DNA and God are both ideas used to interpret experience, and as ideas are both subject to doubt and alternative ways of interpreting experience.

 What we do is try to make our interpretations consistent with each other, and useful for prediction of future events, that's how we judge them.  If we take the evil genius/brain in a vat example there's no possible experience which can refute it , that's why it is used as an example.  It is always as internally consistent as our regular assumptions, because it includes them ( but just adds that they are all due to an evil genius ).

.
 

 
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paul cannon
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« Reply #9 on: January 22, 2009, 05:30:15 PM »

Quote
make our interpretations consistent with each other, and useful for prediction of future events
so humans may haave a genetic disposition to the hive mentality. a big group of rogue individuals makes for very unpredictable outcomes LOL

so we can neither negate of fully be assured of the existence of the evil genius. Does this indicate that even the most devout of religous fanatics carry a fundemental seed of doubt, in turn manifesting itself as guilt. 


ps
off to work now
« Last Edit: January 22, 2009, 05:32:08 PM by paul cannon » Logged
RoyStewart
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« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2009, 12:42:13 AM »

 A big bird or a benign genius on the PM told me that some sniffy buggers say that this topic is for  Mental  Master Bation  who I assume is a Frenchman .

  Clearly the topic is only interesting to those who can understand it.

 In reply to your comment yes scepticism  can call into doubt everything except the reality that one is currently conscious. . . some cheeky types maintain that they can doubt their own existence but I'm with Descartes in thinking that such a notion is Tomfoolery and can't be done. 

 Anyway, what I was going to say was that the constant possibility of mental doubt about nearly everything and anything does not necessarily mean that we are all doomed to scepticism about just about everything.  That's because there are other ways of gaining knowledge than by thinking and logic. 

For example we are certain of our own consciousness, but we cannot prove it logically especially to other people ( to whom we could be mere illusions)  but we still know that it's true even though the knowledge is not obtained by mental cogitation

This knowledge of our own consciousness is also impervious to all mental scepticism. . . .  no matter how much one tries one cannot deny the knowledge that one IS having an experience of some sort . . 

Thus it can be seen, though not proven, that whatever the method is called by which we are aware of our own conscious experience, it is of a  higher order than logic and mental inference.

It has names of course, but it's kind of  in the 'That Which Can't Be Named' category at times


Some good reading on the topic would be Rene Descartes' 'Discourse on method'  and 'The meditations

also  Thomas Khun and Karl Popper on the subject of philosophy of scientific method

.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2009, 12:49:44 AM by RoyStewart » Logged
hunty
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« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2009, 01:57:08 AM »

So you would know alot about quantum mechanics as well i take it roy?its not something i would probably sit down and read but i did find the documentary down the rabbit hole somewhat fascinating although way over my head.I guess it doesnt really relate to this topic but its the only thing that i have to bring to the table on this thread.
I think this type of thing can be interesting to ppl like me who know nothing of the subject when listening to someone else talking about it like this, even though i would not go and read a book on the subject.
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RoyStewart
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« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2009, 02:21:33 AM »


  Hunty when it comes to quantum mechanics I just read or listen and hope to understand a little bit of the thinking if I'm really lucky, did enjoy the recent movie about Einstein and Eddington though   Grin



   
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hunty
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« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2009, 02:25:46 AM »


  Hunty when it comes to quantum mechanics I just read or listen and hope to understand a little bit of the thinking if I'm really lucky, did enjoy the recent movie about Einstein and Eddington though   Grin



   

what is the name of it roy?, if you get the opportunity to see "Down the rabbit hole" try it out, not sure of the accuracy of it but interesting all the same.
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RoyStewart
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« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2009, 02:54:51 AM »

It's called 'Einstein and Eddington' there are some version of it here:

 http://www.watch-movies.net/movies/einstein_and_eddington/

I'll have a look for 'Down the rabbit hole'

.
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